Why Duke Won’t Make a Final Four the Next Five Years

Duke last went to the Final Four in 2004, when they lost to Connecticut 79-78. Since then, their NCAA tournament fortunes have steadily declined, culminating in first and second round exits the past two years. In light of their mid-season struggles this year, they appear to be another highly ranked but fatally flawed Duke team for March Madness.

Last week, UNC pulled away from Duke in what ended up being a disappointing finish for a game that looked like it would be another classic. It had all the elements of an all-time Carlyle Cup match up: a crazy atmosphere, back and forth scoring, flying elbows, coaches violently shedding their suits, and Dick Vitale sweating it out in the rafters at Cameron.

In the end, the game showed why Duke hasn’t advanced far in the tournament recently, and why they won’t be heading to a Final Four anytime soon.

The Tar Heels eclipsed Duke’s lead for good nine minutes into the 2nd half, behind an impressive combination of points in the paint, open looks for three, and beating Duke off the dribble. Duke’s three-point shooting, which carried them to their halftime lead, went cold. North Carolina’s defense woke up and kept Duke well away from the basket, aside from a couple drives by Henderson and Singler.

The real story was Tywon Lawson. Duke didn’t have anyone to match up with him (many teams don’t, he’s looking like a first team All-American). Greg Paulus sure put in the effort, but he didn’t have a chance stopping Lawson from driving. Nolan Smith, who played behind Lawson at Oak Hill Academy, nearly fell down after one Lawson crossover. The result was North Carolina getting layups while Duke took jumpshots down the stretch. The Tar Heel speed was too much.

Don’t expect this trend to change anytime soon. After Duke dominated this rivalry for some time (winning 17 out of the last 24 matchups), North Carolina has now won four straight at Cameron Indoor Stadium and is showing no signs of slowing down. The reason? The players. Simply put, the Tar Heels roster is full of star recruits and fast, strong athletes. Duke has highly touted recruits as well, but in a different mold. Whether it be the new rules requiring high school players to be one year removed from high school before entering the NBA draft, or Coach K’s insistence on recruiting players that match Duke’s academic standards, the Blue Devil recruits have, um, slowed down? Watching Scheyer or Zoubek helplessy get the ball ripped from their possession is almost painful, and the athletic difference between the two teams was on full display. The Tar Heels were one step quicker than Duke, and that was the difference between driving to the hoop for layups and forcing threes from the perimeter.

Look at Duke’s other ACC losses. They lost to a young, athletic Wake Forest team, got crushed at Clemson in a track meet, and most recently lost to a feisty Boston College squad. All these teams played with exceptional speed, and used it to fast break on Duke and keep the Blue Devils from scoring in the paint.

Duke’s lack of athleticism will continue to plague them, and they need to return to top recruiting form. They have missed out on several elite talents lately- the few dominant athletes that they have pursued.

Patrick Patterson chose Kentucky over Duke, and is enjoying a monster sophomore year for the Wildcats. Georgetown’s 6’-10” center Greg Monroe opted for D.C. over Durham, and he may be the Freshman of the Year. If you haven’t heard of Kenny Boynton, Jr., you will next year when he heads to Florida and scores in bunches for Billy Donovan. A top high school scoring guard, he chose the Gators over Duke. John Wall is ESPN’s top rated point guard, and ESPN’s evaluation calls him “the best athlete in the class [of 2009].” He is deciding between Duke, Baylor, Memphis, NC State, and Kansas, but recent rumors don’t bode well for the Blue Devils winning his services.

While their two commits for next year are very highly regarded, power forwards Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly come in more fundamentally sound than athletically able.

With the ever increasing parity in college basketball, a perennially skilled team like Duke is vulnerable to more athletic teams on any given night. And as Duke is learning lately, speed kills. Until Duke rights the ship on the recruiting front and builds a faster, stronger team, they won’t be cutting down the nets again anytime soon.

-InGameNow Writer Tim Harrington

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