Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Preview

This is the most intriguing of the BCS Bowl games.  Will Texas see this as an opportunity or will they sulk in their unfortunate situation?  Should they have been in the Big XII Championship Game, probably so.  But, Oklahoma, who have you noticed seems to always get the benefit from the BCS, I’m not saying that there is a conspiracy, but the Sooners seem to always have the breaks fall their way in the BCS standings.  Then there is Ohio St., what do they make of this game?  If they win, it is more of a knock against Texas, if they lose they continue to lose credibility for them and their conference.  So in essence this game is about one thing, the Texas Longhorns.

So how did each get here?  For Texas it was a great season, that was marred by unfortunate circumstances.  If the poor freshman linebacker makes the gift interception, case closed, and Texas is probably undefeated and headed to Miami.  But, the play wasn’t made by Texas and was made by Texas Tech, and the rest is history.  Texas had great wins over teams like Oklahoma State, Missouri, but none bigger than the one in Dallas against Oklahoma.  However, that night in Lubbock cost Texas the national and conference titles.  Since in the final standings they were #3 and they aren’t a conference champion, they were given an automatic at large bid into the BCS.  The Fiesta Bowl got the first replacement pick to replace Oklahoma, and immediately took their Big XII brethren Texas.

Ohio St., pretty much got here on their name and name alone.  Since the Big Ten is still down, and in fact I would say is worse this past season than last, there was really nothing Ohio St., did to “earn” their way in.  They had two big games, in which they could use to define their season.  The game in Los Angeles against USC, was a big time bust, and the game in the Horseshoe against Penn State, was a great effort, but Penn State won.  I don’t say this to be mean, but there is nothing really resume wise that makes Ohio St. a BCS team.  They ended the season ranked tenth in the BCS, and due to BCS rules, the options were limited.  For the Fiesta Bowl, it was a choice between automatic teams Cincinnati and Utah or BCS eligible teams Boise State or Ohio St.  This is a no brainer, the more sexy pick is Ohio St., and thus the selection.

This will be a very tight and close game.  This is a classic battle of good offense versus good defense, and average offense versus average defense.  According to the NCAA Ohio St. ranks 78th in total offense, 44th in scoring offense 44th,  8th in total defense, and 7th in scoring defense.  Texas is 9th in total offense, 5th in scoring offense, 50th in total defense, and 20th in scoring defense.  I look for this game to be low scoring, since I live in SEC country I tend to value strong defense over strong offense.

Verdict in favor of…

Ohio State 17   Texas 10

Both teams are going to find difficulty moving the ball, for Ohio St. it is because of an average offense, but for Texas is because it is running up against a difficult defense.  Because Terrelle Pryor is a playmaker, who if is able to make plays, should be able to move Ohio St. down the field.  Meanwhile, Texas’s stats show me that their offense is Colt McCoy (who is a great quarterback don’t get me wrong), and nothing else.  I have a feeling Ohio St., will handle McCoy and force Texas’s offense into playing a slower game, plus I think Ohio St., will go out there to prove people like me wrong, that the Big Ten is better than what I think it is.