The Definitive Heisman Breakdown

Tim Tebow

WHY HE’LL WIN IT: Tebow’s return to the final grouping should be nothing of a surprise, even though his numbers are not quite up to the record pace of last year.  Tebow finishes the 2008 campaign with 2515 passing yards, 564 rushing yards, and a combined 40 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and 0 fumbles.  We can probably attribute the lower numbers to the new clock rules, as Tebow through about one hundred times less and ran sixty times less than he did in 2007.  Tebow’s biggest ally? He’s on everyone’s mind. After the upset loss against Ole Miss, he stormed this team back with a vengeance, and the closest a team got to beating his Gators was in the SEC Championship game, where he shined his brightest.  Following the Ole Miss loss, Tebow threw for at least 150 yards, ran for at least 35 yards, and threw at least two touchdowns per game.  Now some of those numbers may look light, but when you’re crushing teams, you get to take a break.  He is undoubtedly the toughest competitor of the three.

WHY HE’LL LOSE: Comparatively speaking, Tebow’s numbers just don’t live up to what he had last year, when he threw for 3215 yards, ran for another 895 yards, and had 55 touchdowns on his own.  His competition this year also matches up a lot more competitively than his opponents from last year, as you’ll see later.  Tebow is still a top choice, and no doubt will pull in plenty of votes, including possibly his own.

Sam Bradford

WHY HE’LL WIN IT: Bradford has taken this team on his back, and then some, compiling 4,464 passing yards and 53 touchdowns (5 rushing),  while leading Oklahoma to the Big 12 Championship and a national championship opportunity.  All this, and he’s only a Sophomore!  During the season, Bradford threw at least two touchdowns a game, and ten times during the season, threw at least 300 yards.  He also stepped up in the biggest performances, against Texas (28-39, 387 yards, 5 touchdowns), Texas Tech (14-19, 304 yards, 4 touchdowns), Oklahoma State (30-44, 370 yards, four touchdowns), and Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game (34-39, 284 yards, 2 touchdowns). 

WHY HE’LL LOSE: Bradford’s biggest discriminator against a victory is the fact that he’s only a Sophomore. I know, Tebow won it last year as one, but look at the level of competition he is facing up against this year.  The 4,000 plus passing yards helps immensely, but his lack of a running game takes away from the all-around style of his opponents. His longest run was only a 15 yards scramble against Texas A&M. Add to the fact that the regional voters will likely split between him and McCoy, and Bradford will be a distant third on Saturday night, but easily the competition to beat come 2009.

Colt McCoy

WHY HE’LL WIN IT: McCoy’s numbers are very Tim Tebow like, if more so this year than last.  3445 yards and 32 touchdowns in the air, complemented with 576 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.  He has lead his offense amazingly, and without the defensive collapse against Texas Tech at the end (remember, he led them to a scoring drive prior to Texas Tech’s final drive), he would have led this team to an undefeated season.  His team scored at least 28 points a game, and his completion percentage was phenomenal at 77%, with only one game being below 60%. He was a force to be reckoned with whether with his arm or with his legs, with five games throwing for more than 300 yards and four games of 75 or more yards rushing.  He’s already said he’s coming back next year, but he seems to be one of the most popular picks to win it this year.

WHY HE’LL LOSE: Outside of the media hype of the Heisman, McCoy is not the biggest name being discussed right now, and with this team not playing in the Big 12 Championship, while his two opponents had games to boost their presence and stats, could greatly hurt him with voters who waited until the last second to make a decision. The fact that he has already stated he will come back next year makes him the top choice du jour for 2009, and with Tebow on the fence about leaving, could likely convince voters to wait one more year for that vote.  Finally, like mentioned earlier, the location factor against Bradford will hurt McCoy’s chances.

So there you have it, the good and bad of this year’s Heisman crops.  In case you’re wondering, my picks go  McCoy, Tebow, Bradford, but the way I expect it to turn out: Tebow, McCoy, Bradford.

By Ryan Liss “The Sportmeister”

www.sportmeisters.com

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